From Ottoman Grandeur to Economic Challenges

Turkey, a nation where East meets West, has long been celebrated for its rich history, vibrant culture, and strategic geopolitical position. However, recent years have seen the country grappling with significant economic challenges, marked by soaring inflation, a depreciating currency, and strained international relations.

Economic Policies and the Lira’s Decline

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan‘s leadership, Turkey has adopted unconventional economic strategies, notably the belief that high interest rates fuel inflation. This approach led to significant rate cuts even as inflation soared, causing the Turkish lira to depreciate sharply. In March 2025, the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, a prominent opposition figure, further destabilized the economy, leading to a 12.7% drop in the lira’s value and a substantial outflow of foreign investments.

Geopolitical Alignments and Domestic Repercussions

Turkey’s foreign policy choices have also stirred controversy. Its overt support for Pakistan during the recent Operation Sindoor, including supplying drones and military equipment, has strained relations with India. This alignment has led to economic repercussions, with Indian industries boycotting Turkish products and a significant decline in tourism from India.

India’s Strategic Response: Economic and Diplomatic Measures

In response to Turkey’s support for Pakistan, India has undertaken several measures:

• Tourism Boycott: Indian travelers have significantly reduced visits to Turkey, with major travel agencies reporting a 60% drop in bookings and a 250% increase in cancellations.

• Trade Restrictions: Indian traders have halted imports of Turkish goods, notably marble and fruits, impacting trade worth approximately Rs 3,000 crore.

• Cultural and Media Actions: The Indian film industry has been urged to avoid Turkey as a shooting destination, and Turkish state media accounts have faced restrictions in India.

• Diplomatic Realignments: India is strengthening ties with Turkey’s regional rivals, such as Greece, Armenia, and Cyprus, to counterbalance Turkey’s influence.

IndiGo and Turkish Airlines: Under Scrutiny

IndiGo, India’s largest airline, has faced mounting pressure to reconsider its codeshare agreement with Turkish Airlines. This partnership, established in 2018, allows seamless connectivity to over 30 destinations across Europe and the United States via Istanbul. However, public sentiment has turned against this collaboration, with calls for its termination gaining momentum. IndiGo has not yet made a formal announcement regarding the future of this partnership.

Navigating the Path Forward

Turkey’s current predicament is a confluence of internal economic policies and external geopolitical decisions. Balancing its rich heritage with the demands of modern governance requires introspection and strategic recalibration. Restoring economic stability and fostering international trust are paramount. As Turkey reflects on its legacy, the path it chooses will determine whether it can harmonize its illustrious past with a prosperous future.

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India’s calibrated strikes and disciplined messaging show a mature, responsible power at work—unlike Pakistan’s volatile, military-driven reaction model.

Despite rising tensions along the Line of Control, there remains cautious optimism that the current Indo-Pak standoff will not escalate into full-scale war. The reason? India’s strategic restraint, precision targeting, and clear signalling.

India has once again demonstrated that it is the adult in the room, choosing to strike at terrorist infrastructure rather than military installations. This is not just about optics; it reflects a deeply calculated effort to climb the escalation ladder responsibly—asserting strength without triggering a conventional or nuclear conflict.

In a world where one miscalculation could spark uncontrollable fallout, India’s approach shows the discipline of a power that understands the cost of uncontrolled aggression.

Striking With Precision, Not Provocation

India’s official statements have carefully emphasised that only terrorist camps were targeted—not Pakistani army posts or civilian infrastructure. This messaging is important. It reinforces India’s position as a nation responding to terror, not provoking a war. The real strategic brilliance lies in showing resolve without inviting escalation.

Compare this with Pakistan’s lack of institutional coordination, where military narratives often overrun diplomatic rationality. Civilian leadership appears sidelined, while the military establishment defaults to outdated tactics that blur the line between state and proxy action.

Escalation Is Always a Risk—But Not Because of India

Yes, escalation remains a concern. In a nuclearized region, even limited tit-for-tat actions can spiral out of control if left unchecked. But in this case, India has done the hard work of containing the battlefield—geographically, militarily, and diplomatically.

The wildcard lies not in New Delhi’s restraint, but in Islamabad’s desperation. With minimal global pressure and growing internal instability, Pakistan may choose provocation over prudence—especially to appease domestic constituencies or distract from its collapsing economy.

Nationalism: Constructive in Delhi, Destructive in Islamabad

Both India and Pakistan have vocal nationalist elements. But while India’s nationalism fuels strategic modernization, Pakistan’s often serves to deflect from governance failures and economic freefall.

India’s national security doctrine under Prime Minister Modi has evolved—it is now about precision, deterrence, and global positioning, not loud sabre-rattling.

Kashmir: The Litmus Test of Containment

Historically, Kashmir has been the ignition point of Indo-Pak confrontations. As one analyst put it, “In the bad old days… casualties across the Kashmir border were routine.” Today, there are still flare-ups, but the fact that attacks remain localized and don’t target core military installations is evidence that India is actively managing escalation.

This measured response is not just good military policy—it’s smart global diplomacy.

Conclusion: Strategic Maturity Wins Wars Before They Start

India’s actions speak louder than slogans. It has chosen restraint over recklessness, surgical precision over symbolic aggression, and long-term strategic advantage over short-term political gain.

If the conflict remains contained—and there’s every reason to believe it will—it will be because India chose wisdom when it had the capacity for war.

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While India quietly ratchets up the temperature with Operation Sindoor, Pakistan is being beset by internal crises of economic collapse, political turbulence, and spreading extremism—potentially more devastating than foreign strife.

A Cover Story Exclusive Analysis

A new model of warfare is unfolding across South Asia—less about tanks and missiles, and more about sustained pressure and strategic endurance. Through the classified contours of Operation Sindoor, India appears to be conducting a campaign not aimed at winning a conventional war, but at breaking its adversary from the inside out.

This shift from deterrence to disruption signals that New Delhi has adopted a doctrine designed not just to protect Indian interests, but to expose the fault lines within Pakistan’s fragile internal structure.

The Economic Collapse Engineered by Containment

Pakistan today faces an economic cliff edge. Foreign reserves have dwindled to dangerously low levels, inflation is galloping, and the rupee is plunging. The economy, held together by foreign aid and IMF bailouts, now resembles a dependency loop rather than a recovery path.

India’s diplomatic maneuvering—especially its role in keeping Pakistan on the FATF grey list—has further eroded investor confidence and choked access to global financing. Foreign direct investment has dried up, credit ratings are sinking, and business sentiment is dismal. As a result, Pakistan’s sovereign debt outlook remains perilously close to default.

While India strengthens trade ties with the Gulf, ASEAN, and Central Asian markets, Pakistan finds itself increasingly shut out of regional economic integration. China, long viewed as Islamabad’s economic backer, has cooled its enthusiasm, slowing CPEC disbursements and project activity due to political risk and repayment concerns.

Political Tensions: The Unstable Core

This external pressure is now cascading into Pakistan’s political institutions. Civil-military relations—already fragile—are under renewed stress. The military, traditionally the power broker in Pakistani politics, faces rising scrutiny from a public mired in economic pain and disillusionment. Civilian leaders, on the other hand, are stuck between appeasing the military and avoiding a total fiscal collapse.

These tensions have historical precedents. Coups and political resets have occurred under far less pressure. With public dissatisfaction growing, especially in urban and youth-heavy demographics, the risk of mass unrest or a military reshuffle is no longer hypothetical—it’s plausible.

The Extremism Wildcard

Strategic external stress often creates internal vacuums. In Pakistan’s case, this could lead to a reawakening of extremist forces, particularly in border regions like Balochistan or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As the state grapples with governance paralysis and economic rot, militant outfits may exploit the chaos, rebuilding networks and regaining territorial influence.

This not only presents a grave national security challenge, but also jeopardizes Pakistan’s fragile standing with Western governments, which have grown increasingly intolerant of state-adjacent extremism.

The Real Battlefield Is Within

Operation Sindoor may never be officially confirmed, but its ripple effects are visible far beyond India’s borders. The operation represents a strategy of non-linear conflict—one that doesn’t aim to topple tanks, but to topple regimes by amplifying their internal contradictions.

For Pakistan, the war is already underway—and it’s not being fought in Kashmir or along the LOC. It’s being fought inside its financial markets, its energy grids, its institutions, and on its restless streets.

India, through measured but unrelenting pressure, may ultimately achieve strategic dominance not by invasion—but by erosion. If current trends persist, Pakistan’s eventual collapse could come not from outside attack, but from internal disintegration.

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